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2016 Senate · CO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 42%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.97% · Republican 44.31%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.971 − 44.306 = 5.665
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.665) = -0.665
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.665| = 0.665

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48079, race ID 74 (538 database).