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2016 President · CO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 41%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 41 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.906) = -1.906
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.906| = 1.906

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48079, race ID 607 (538 database).