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2016 President · AZ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.13% · Republican 48.67%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.125 − 48.670 = -3.545
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.545) = -0.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.454| = 0.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48078, race ID 605 (538 database).