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2016 President · OR

DHM Research · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 34%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.07% · Republican 39.09%

D+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 34 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.072 − 39.094 = 10.978
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (10.978) = -3.978
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.978| = 3.978

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48017, race ID 639 (538 database).