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2016 President · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 747 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 35%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.73% · Republican 31.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 35 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.726 − 31.617 = 30.109
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (30.109) = -9.109
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.109| = 9.109

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48011, race ID 606 (538 database).