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2016 President · NC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 659 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.17% · Republican 49.83%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.173 − 49.828 = -3.655
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-3.655) = -3.345
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.345| = 3.345

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48008, race ID 629 (538 database).