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2016 Senate · MO

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.39% · Republican 49.18%

R+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.392 − 49.184 = -2.792
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-2.792) = 1.792
  4. Absolute miss = |1.792| = 1.792

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47996, race ID 70 (538 database).