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2016 President · MO

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 52%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.13% · Republican 56.77%

R+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 52 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.135 − 56.772 = -18.637
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-18.637) = 4.637
  4. Absolute miss = |4.637| = 4.637

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47996, race ID 626 (538 database).