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2016 Governor · MO

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.14%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.570 − 51.137 = -5.567
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.567) = 5.567
  4. Absolute miss = |5.567| = 5.567

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47996, race ID 50 (538 database).