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2016 Senate · NC

Elon University · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 710 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39.9% · Republican 43.5%

R+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 45.37% · Republican 51.06%

R+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.9 − 43.5 = -3.60
  2. Actual margin = 45.366 − 51.062 = -5.696
  3. Signed miss = -3.60 − (-5.696) = 2.096
  4. Absolute miss = |2.096| = 2.096

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47937, race ID 62 (538 database).