Skip to content

2016 Governor · NC

Elon University · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 710 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.02% · Republican 48.80%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.016 − 48.798 = 0.218
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.218) = -0.218
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.218| = 0.218

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47937, race ID 52 (538 database).