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2016 Senate · WA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 745 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 36%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.01% · Republican 40.99%

D+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 36 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.013 − 40.987 = 18.026
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (18.026) = 6.974
  4. Absolute miss = |6.974| = 6.974

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47930, race ID 72 (538 database).