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2016 Governor · VT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 436 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.17% · Republican 52.91%

R+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.166 − 52.908 = -8.742
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-8.742) = 1.742
  4. Absolute miss = |1.742| = 1.742

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47928, race ID 57 (538 database).