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2016 President · RI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 419 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 36%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.42% · Republican 38.89%

D+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 36 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.417 − 38.886 = 15.531
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (15.531) = -2.531
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.531| = 2.531

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47922, race ID 641 (538 database).