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2016 Senate · OR

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 743 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 34%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.60% · Republican 33.35%

D+23.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 34 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.601 − 33.348 = 23.253
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (23.253) = 4.747
  4. Absolute miss = |4.747| = 4.747

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47920, race ID 65 (538 database).