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2016 President · OR

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 743 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 36%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.07% · Republican 39.09%

D+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 36 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.072 − 39.094 = 10.978
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (10.978) = 4.022
  4. Absolute miss = |4.022| = 4.022

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47920, race ID 639 (538 database).