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2016 President · OK

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 472 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 54%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.93% · Republican 65.32%

R+36.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 54 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.932 − 65.323 = -36.391
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-36.391) = 13.391
  4. Absolute miss = |13.391| = 13.391

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47919, race ID 638 (538 database).