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2016 Senate · OH

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,823 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 55%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 55 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-20.871) = 5.871
  4. Absolute miss = |5.871| = 5.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47918, race ID 67 (538 database).