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2016 President · OH

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,823 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 45%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.56% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 45 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.558 − 51.688 = -8.130
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-8.130) = 3.130
  4. Absolute miss = |3.130| = 3.130

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47918, race ID 637 (538 database).