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2016 Governor · ND

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 279 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 68%

R+39.0

The certified result

Democrat 19.39% · Republican 76.52%

R+57.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 68 = -39.00
  2. Actual margin = 19.392 − 76.520 = -57.128
  3. Signed miss = -39.00 − (-57.128) = 18.128
  4. Absolute miss = |18.128| = 18.128

The poll overstated the Democrat by 18.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47917, race ID 53 (538 database).