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2016 President · NY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,734 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 33%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.72% · Republican 32.73%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 33 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.722 − 32.729 = 23.993
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (23.993) = -0.994
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.994| = 0.994

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47915, race ID 636 (538 database).