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2016 Senate · NY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,734 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 68% · Republican 28%

D+40.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.62% · Republican 23.64%

D+42.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 68 − 28 = 40.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.618 − 23.644 = 41.974
  3. Signed miss = 40.00 − (41.974) = -1.973
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.973| = 1.973

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47915, race ID 61 (538 database).