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2016 President · NM

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 987 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 34%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.26% · Republican 40.04%

D+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 34 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.256 − 40.043 = 8.213
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (8.213) = 1.787
  4. Absolute miss = |1.787| = 1.787

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47914, race ID 634 (538 database).