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2016 Governor · NH

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 659 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.84%

R+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.573 − 48.842 = -2.269
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (-2.269) = 12.270
  4. Absolute miss = |12.270| = 12.270

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47912, race ID 54 (538 database).