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2016 President · NE

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 412 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 52%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.70% · Republican 58.75%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 52 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.699 − 58.747 = -25.048
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-25.048) = 5.049
  4. Absolute miss = |5.049| = 5.049

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47910, race ID 631 (538 database).