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2016 Governor · MT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 39%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.25% · Republican 46.35%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.246 − 46.355 = 3.891
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (3.891) = 10.109
  4. Absolute miss = |10.109| = 10.109

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47909, race ID 51 (538 database).