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2016 President · MD

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 740 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 27%

D+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.33% · Republican 33.91%

D+26.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 27 = 36.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.326 − 33.909 = 26.417
  3. Signed miss = 36.00 − (26.417) = 9.584
  4. Absolute miss = |9.584| = 9.584

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47903, race ID 622 (538 database).