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2016 President · ME

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 432 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 37%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 44.87%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 37 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.830 − 44.870 = 2.960
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (2.960) = 9.040
  4. Absolute miss = |9.040| = 9.040

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47902, race ID 623 (538 database).