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2016 Senate · KS

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,273 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 56%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.24% · Republican 62.17%

R+29.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 56 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.238 − 62.175 = -29.937
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-29.937) = 12.937
  4. Absolute miss = |12.937| = 12.937

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47899, race ID 60 (538 database).