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2016 President · IN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 674 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 51%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.77% · Republican 56.94%

R+19.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 51 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.775 − 56.940 = -19.165
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-19.165) = 5.165
  4. Absolute miss = |5.165| = 5.165

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47897, race ID 617 (538 database).