Skip to content

2016 Governor · IN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 674 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.42% · Republican 51.38%

R+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.423 − 51.375 = -5.952
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-5.952) = 6.952
  4. Absolute miss = |6.952| = 6.952

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47897, race ID 49 (538 database).