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2016 President · HI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 467 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 32%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.22% · Republican 30.04%

D+32.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 32 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.221 − 30.039 = 32.182
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (32.182) = -13.183
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.183| = 13.183

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47894, race ID 613 (538 database).