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2016 President · DE

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 458 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 38%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.09% · Republican 41.71%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.086 − 41.713 = 11.373
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (11.373) = 0.627
  4. Absolute miss = |0.627| = 0.627

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47891, race ID 610 (538 database).