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2016 Governor · DE

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 458 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 36%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.34% · Republican 39.19%

D+19.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 36 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.340 − 39.187 = 19.153
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (19.153) = 4.847
  4. Absolute miss = |4.847| = 4.847

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47891, race ID 48 (538 database).