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2016 Senate · CT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 554 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 38%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.68% · Republican 34.62%

D+23.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 38 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.682 − 34.619 = 23.063
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (23.063) = -2.063
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.063| = 2.063

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47889, race ID 91 (538 database).