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2016 Senate · CO

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,532 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.97% · Republican 44.31%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.971 − 44.306 = 5.665
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (5.665) = -3.665
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.665| = 3.665

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47888, race ID 74 (538 database).