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2016 President · AR

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 484 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 52%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.65% · Republican 60.57%

R+26.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 52 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.653 − 60.574 = -26.921
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-26.921) = 13.921
  4. Absolute miss = |13.921| = 13.921

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47886, race ID 604 (538 database).