Skip to content

2016 President · VA

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,106 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.73% · Republican 44.41%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.728 − 44.407 = 5.321
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (5.321) = -1.321
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.321| = 1.321

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47868, race ID 647 (538 database).