2016 Governor · IN
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.42% · Republican 51.38%
R+6.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 45.423 − 51.375 = -5.952
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-5.952) = 11.952
- Absolute miss = |11.952| = 11.952
The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47857, race ID 49 (538 database).