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2016 President · NC

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,176 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.17% · Republican 49.83%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.173 − 49.828 = -3.655
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-3.655) = 1.655
  4. Absolute miss = |1.655| = 1.655

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47848, race ID 629 (538 database).