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2016 President · NV

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 787 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (2.417) = -6.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.417| = 6.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47847, race ID 635 (538 database).