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2016 President · M2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 341 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 40%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.98% · Republican 51.27%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 40 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.976 − 51.265 = -10.289
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-10.289) = 13.288
  4. Absolute miss = |13.288| = 13.288

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47774, race ID 8716 (538 database).