Skip to content

2016 House · ME-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 314 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.17% · Republican 54.77%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.170 − 54.766 = -9.596
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-9.596) = 11.596
  4. Absolute miss = |11.596| = 11.596

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47772, race ID 5951 (538 database).