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2016 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 1,039 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.1% · Republican 41.6%

D+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.1 − 41.6 = 2.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = 2.50 − (2.182) = 0.319
  4. Absolute miss = |0.319| = 0.319

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47770, race ID 94 (538 database).