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2016 President · NV

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 550 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 42%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 42 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (2.417) = -0.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.417| = 0.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47760, race ID 635 (538 database).