Skip to content

2016 Senate · OH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 49%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 49 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-20.871) = 6.871
  4. Absolute miss = |6.871| = 6.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47757, race ID 67 (538 database).