2016 Governor · MO
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 45%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.14%
R+5.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 45.570 − 51.137 = -5.567
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-5.567) = 6.567
- Absolute miss = |6.567| = 6.567
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47629, race ID 50 (538 database).