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2016 Senate · GA

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 707 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 54%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.03% · Republican 54.78%

R+13.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 54 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.033 − 54.784 = -13.751
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-13.751) = -0.249
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.249| = 0.249

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47617, race ID 88 (538 database).