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2016 President · NV

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 707 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.417) = -2.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.417| = 2.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47540, race ID 635 (538 database).