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2016 Governor · NH

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.84%

R+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.573 − 48.842 = -2.269
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-2.269) = 7.270
  4. Absolute miss = |7.270| = 7.270

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47528, race ID 54 (538 database).